The Offenses In NFL Aren’t Scoring As Much, Average Points Scored Lowest Since 2006

Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets walked off the field after throwing for more than 200 yards, a mark he had not accomplished since his final game with the Green Bay Packers two seasons prior. His passing totals in the first two weeks of the season were 167 and 176 yards, which were lower than his career average of 255 yards per game.

But he wasn’t the only one who saw the low statistics. The NFL season is only two weeks (and one game) old, and the reasons for the significant decline in offensive production, especially in passing, are several. 

The figures are really striking

According to Pro Football Reference, the current per-game passing yard average through one Week 3 game is 192.7. 

Should that figure remain stable, it would represent the lowest passing yards per game since 187.6 on average in 1992. 30.3 passing attempts per game for the entire league would likewise be a record low since ’92.

The average point total for NFL teams is currently 21.4, which is the lowest since 2006 and the fifth consecutive year that the scoring average has dropped. 

Between 2020 and this season, the average passing yards per game have decreased by over 50 yards from 240.2, which was the third-highest number ever. During that same time, scoring has progressively decreased.

Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins topped the NFL in passing yards last season with 4,624 yards—the fewest yards for a passing yard leader since 2017. 

Despite having one fewer regular season game scheduled, five players passed for more than 4,624 yards in 2011, the year Rodgers won his first MVP award. Three of them even threw for 5,000 or more.

There are several theories

Yahoo’s Nate Tice suggests that a decline in offensive line play is limiting teams’ ability to attack defenses, leading to a muted passing game and decreased scoring numbers, as reported by him last season.

Bill Barnwell of ESPN provided his own argument, arguing that defenders have become more adept at hiding their intentions and exploiting offensive vulnerabilities than attackers.

Defenses are utilizing a “two high” defense, also known as Cover 2, where two safeties are far off the line of scrimmage and cover half the field to prevent big plays over the top.

Defenses are using the two-high safety look at a far higher rate now than they did five years ago, when passing and scoring were higher, as ESPN’s Mina Kimes notes.

Teams are playing more Cover 2, but it may also be due to their poorer ability to attack. Data shows teams are generally worse at running effectively, despite defenses encouraging it. Additionally, some argue that quarterbacks may be worse at this skill.

Defenses are finally getting some measure of revenge

NFL offenses have been slowing down, with the leaguewide scoring average increasing by nearly four points per game from the turn of the millennium to 2020. This has led to many fans and players lamenting the inability of defenses to fight back against offenses. 

The league capitulated to offenses with rule changes that made moving the ball downfield easier. This season, defenses are finally getting some revenge, possibly due to a late summer blip or a sign that it’s time for offenses to innovate. 

The decrease in performance can be felt, as the Patriots managed only three points and their two quarterbacks combined for only 120 yards.

Follow Wat-Not on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram