As the nations across the world are coming up with several studies about the current pandemic, reports have indicated on Thursday that Covid-19 can even stay up to two years counting from now on!
Michael Osterholm, report author and the director of Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in an interview with CNN revealed, “This thing’s not going to stop until it infects 60 to 70% of people,” which will take another 18-24 months. However, the contagion has a lot in common with Spanish flu which also spreads via droplets. But coronavirus fetches its way far more easily than the former where an infected person can pass the disease on to 2-2.5 of the population in terms of RO value.
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The researchers have projected 3 possible scenarios which can take over after the first phase of infection ends.
1st scenario:
Once the first wave is done away, series of repetitive, smaller waves will occur during the summer season which will pose a relatively lower number of infections but it will stay for 1-2 years. Now, that would be dependent on the measures adopted by various nations and how the curbs are withdrawn with time.
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2nd Scenario:
The worst but most expected of all can be a larger wave to hit the world in the fall or winter of 2020, followed by one or more such waves in the very next year.
The researchers told, “States, territories, and tribal health authorities should plan for the worst-case scenario”.
3rd Scenario:
The third prediction signifies that the first wave of the virus experienced at present is the coincidentally last one, while the next months will see a “slow burn” in the count of transmitted as well as new cases.
The experts, however, claimed, “While this third pattern was not seen with past influenza pandemics, it remains a possibility for COVID-19.”
Indeed, the crisis will race into a long run either sooner or later.
